Political watchers are parsing through the election primaries and special election results from Tuesday night, hoping to glean clues ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections.
Here are three takeaways to consider:
1. Roe v. Wade overturning mobilized Democratic voters. Democrat Pat Ryan’s upset political victory against MAGA-backed Marc Molinaro with a 51.9% to 48% margin in the New York 19th Congressional District is a roadmap for Democrats looking to beat MAGA-backed candidates. The district spans south of Albany through the Catskills and northern New York City — and is largely middle class.
It’s a district that backed George W. Bush for two terms; then flipped for Barack Obama; and Trump beat Clinton in the district in 2016. However, President Biden was able to flip it back to Democratic control in 2020 by just three percentage points. This is the quintessential swing district that Democrats are hoping will be a sign of momentum heading into November and Republicans hope will just be a fluke. Ryan, a West Point graduate, was trailing in the polls early in the summer. But following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, Ryan staged a comeback by opposing the decision.
2. Elizabeth Warren proves to be a kingmaker in New York politics. Sen. Elizabeth Warren — the former and potential future Democratic presidential candidate — backed House Judiciary Committee chairman Jerry Nadler in his primary against Carolyn Maloney for New York’s redrawn 12 Congressional district. Warren’s backing Nadler over Maloney proved to giver Nadler just enough progressive cover as Maloney tried to argue in the last days of the campaign that she would be more of a champion for abortion rights than Nadler. Most Democrats are glad to see the bitter brawl between New York’s Nadler and Maloney come to an end. Both policymakers served alongside each other for decades and have virtually the same voting record. But in the end, Warren’s backing proved to provide just enough star power to push Nadler over the finish line.
3. Can a centrist Democrat beat DeSantis in Florida? Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist will face off against GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis in November as DeSantis continues to raise speculation about a presidential run in 2024. Crist is a political chameleon — a one-time Republican governor who embraced Obama in 2009 and then switched parties to launch a losing bid against Sen. Marco Rubio in 2010. Then Crist entered Congress as a Democratic lawmaker. Look for Democrats to test out political attacks against DeSantis through Crist, who currently represents Florida’s 13th Congressional district. Florida hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in more than two decades.
Kevin Cirilli is a Yahoo Finance contributor. He is a senior media fellow at both the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue and the Atlantic Council in the Global China Hub. Follow him on LinkedIn.
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